Monday, August 27, 2007

Baseball Update

What you've missed during my inconsistence:

- The Yankees aren't a fan of four hour rain delays, one run games, or Sean Henn. But hey, at least Kyle Farnsworth has reason to pop his collar.

- Yes, Orioles pitching is that bad. And apparently, it's contagious. Bedard was rocked on Sunday. But not for 30 runs, thankfully.

- The Padres sent down Clay Hensley to call up Tim Stauffer for Sunday's start. Eleven earned runs later, you have to wonder if they're calling "my bad" on that one. What, Ledezma couldn't start?

- Chad Cordero is a closer? Really? Could have fooled me...

- Don't have a funny tagline for the Mets. But David Wells did beat out a push bunt on a John Maine pitch Sunday night. That's comedy unto itself.

Today is August 27th. There's just about one month to go in the chase for a postseason spot. Get excited, kids! After all, there's only one October~!~!~! (I hate that commercial, in case you couldn't tell.) So let's take a look at the standings, shall we?

AL East
Red Sox ~ 80-51 ~ --
Yankees ~ 72-58 ~ 7.5
Blue Jays ~ 65-65 ~ 14.5
Orioles ~ 58-71 ~ 21.0
Devil Rays ~ 51-79 ~ 28.5

AL Central
Indians ~ 72-57 ~ --
Tigers ~ 70-60 ~ 2.5
Twins ~ 67-63 ~ 5.5
Royals ~ 57-72 ~ 15.0
White Sox ~ 56-74 ~ 16.5

AL West
Angels ~ 76-54 ~ --
Mariners ~ 73-55 ~ 2.0
Athletics ~ 65-67 ~ 12.0
Rangers ~ 58-72 ~ 18.0

Thoughts: Is the Eastern Division still achievable for the Yankees? Yes, with a miracle record in September and a slip by the Red Sox - including Boston conceding games to the Yankees in the six remaining with them. Is it probable? No. Yes, the Yankees could sweep all six remaining games with the Sox. They don't play the games on paper. Anything is possible. But realistically, that won't happen. It's the WC the Yankees are looking at. More on that in a moment ... I go back and forth between whether the Mariners will fall off or whether the Angels need to be looking in their rearview. LA hasn't been playing good baseball of late. It's very possible that the Mariners could overtake the West. ... Man, how terrible are the White Sox this year? I don't know that anyone expected them to be up there with the Indians and Tigers in the Central, but to be as bad as they are? Yikes. ... One week ago, I thought it was very possible that the Orioles could overtake the Blue Jays for third place in the East, thus giving Erik Bedard an outside shot at the AL Cy Young. One week later, it seems obvious that this won't happen. ... To add to the above point, the Devil Rays have a better shot of catching the Orioles at this point than the Orioles do of catching the Blue Jays.

NL East
Mets ~ 73-56 ~ --
Phillies ~ 67-62 ~ 6.0
Braves ~ 67-64 ~ 7.0
Nationals ~ 58-73 ~ 16.0
Marlins ~ 57-74 ~ 17.0

NL Central
Cubs ~ 66-63 ~ --
Brewers ~ 65-65 ~ 1.5
Cardinals ~ 63-64 ~ 2.0
Reds ~ 60-70 ~ 6.5
Astros ~ 58-73 ~ 9.0
Pirates ~ 57-72 ~ 9.0

NL West
Diamondbaks ~ 74-57 ~ --
Padres ~ 70-59 ~ 3.0
Rockies ~ 67-63 ~ 6.5
Dodgers ~ 67-63 ~ 6.5
Giants ~ 59-72 ~ 15.0

Thoughts: Barring a catastrophic collapse, the Mets have won that division. They didn't win it as easily as they did last year, nor did they win it as easily as they should have. But they've won it. ... If the Nationals manage to finish ahead of the Marlins, does Manny Acta have a serious shot at Manager of the Year? Everyone was boasting about the manager of the Brewers, but unless they take that division you'd have to think Acta has a shot. Unless the Diamondbacks hold on. ... Speaking of the D-Backs, all right, you've had your fun. Planning to come back to Earth anytime soon? What a story that is if they manage to win the West. ... The Reds are closer to first place in their division than the Yankees are to first place in their division. Just saying. ... Just as surprising as the D-Backs dominance has to be the Dodgers inefficiency. Tied with the Rockies for third place at the end of August? Wow. Granted, they've had a slew of pitching injuries and busts to the point where David Wells is an improvement. ... Freakin' Cardinals.

The Wild Cards

AL WC
Mariners ~ 73-55 ~ --
Yankees ~ 72-58 ~ 2.0
Tigers ~ 70-60 ~ 4.0
Twins ~ 67-63 ~ 7.0
Blue Jays ~ 65-65 ~ 9.0

Thoughts: With the Mariners having lost two in a row, this Tigers series hasn't been at all good for the Yankees. I still expect the Tigers to have overtaken the Indians by the end, but this final game Monday with the Yankees-Tigers is huge for both teams. ... Watch out for those Twins. Yes, they're seven back, but they're on a five-game win streak and are known for last minute comebacks. The Blue Jays and Oakland (sitting at 10.0 games back) are not threats to the top three WC teams. The Twins are. ... Huge week coming up both in the division and WC. The Yankees and Mariners each have huge tasks, taking on the Red Sox and Angels respectively. The Tigers, meanwhile, travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals. Could be a big week for the Tigers to get back in it, especially if they take one more from the Yankees Monday. ... Speaking of the Tigers, their division rival Indians will be taking on those surging Twins. There's a very good chance the Tigers could be back on top of the Central by the end of the week.

NL WC
Padres ~ 70-59 ~ --
Phillies ~ 67-62 ~ 3.0
Rockies ~ 67-63 ~ 3.5
Dodgers ~ 67-63 ~ 3.5
Braves ~ 67-64 ~ 4.0

Thoughts: The Padres had a great road trip, taking two away from the Mets and two away from the Phillies. That second series especially was huge, because it gave them a little breathing room in the Wild Card. ... Huge series coming up this week, with the Padres taking on the Diamondbacks and the Mets taking on the Phillies. Easier times for the Braves, Dodgers, and Rockies. The Braves take on the Marlins next, the Dodgers have the Nationals, and the Rockies have the Giants. Philadelphia especially needs a big series here so they don't fall completely out of contention both in the division and in the WC.

So, that's where we stand. Now, as for what we do about it...

Huge game Monday night as RHP Mike Mussina (8-9, 5.22 ERA) and the Yankees look to split their wrap-around series against RHP Justin Verlander (13-5, 3.94 ERA) and the Tigers. We know where Mussina stands. He took the loss in Anaheim, lasting just 1.2 innings and allowing seven earned runs on seven hits, including two walks. Expect a short leash in this one, even with the Boston series coming up. Mussina needs a good start here, not only for his team but for his place in the rotation. He recently asked the press who they would replace him with if he doesn't produce. As scary as it sounds, even Kei Igawa often was better than 1.2 innings and seven earned runs. And there's a kid named Ian Kennedy with a great arm in AAA. Though, with the struggles Hughes has seen since returning to the starting rotation, I'd have to guess that Kennedy isn't an option for this year unless absolutely necessary. Moose took the loss in his one previous outing against the Tigers. He lasted five innings and allowed six earned runs (seven total) on nine hits with one homerun (Guillen) and two strikeouts.

In a somewhat ironic coincidence, Justin Verlander is also coming off of a bad start, though his wasn't quite as bad as Mussina's. Verlander lasted just four innings against the Indians and allowed seven earned runs on ten hits with one walk and five strikeouts. He took the win in his August 16th start against Mussina and the Yankees. Verlander wasn't great in that one, going 5.1 innings and allowing three earned runs on seven hits, including one homerun (Abreu), and one walk. But he was good enough to win on Mussina's off-night.

RHP Brian Lawrence (1-1, 5.57 ERA) and the Mets make the short trip from Shea to Philadelphia to take on RHP J.D. Durbin (5-3, 5.44 ERA) and the division rival Phillies. Lawrence is coming off of a loss against the Padres on the 22nd. He lasted five innings and allowed four earned runs on seven hits with four walks and two strikeouts. Lawrence has not faced Philadelphia this season.

Durbin is coming off a loss against the Dodgers. He lasted six innings in that one, allowng four earned runs (five total) on seven hits (1 HR) with three walks and one strikeout. Durbin's only start of the season against the Mets was at the end of June. He took the loss in that one, going 4.2 innings and allowing six earned runs on eight hits, with two homeruns (Delgado & Reyes), two walks, and five strikeouts.

Big series out in San Diego as Padres ace RHP Jake Peavy (14-5, 2.21 ERA) takes on RHP Livan Hernandez (9-8, 4.96 ERA) and the Diamondbacks. Peavy took the win in his last start against the Mets, going six innings and allowing two earned runs on two hits with five walks and eleven strikeouts. In three starts against the Diamondbacks this season, Peavy is 2-0. His last start against them was on August 2nd. Peavy was dominant - throwing seven shutout innings with only three hits and one walk while recording ten strikeouts.

Hernandez took the loss in his August 21st start against the Brewers. He lasted six innings and allowed five earned runs on seven hits with one walk and one strikeout. In three starts against San Diego this season, Hernandez is 1-1. His last start on July 14th was a no decision. He went six innings in that one, allowing four earned runs on six hits - including three homeruns (Kouzmanoff, Greene, B. Giles) - with two walks and three strikeouts.

Finally, LHP Mike Bacsik (5-7, 4.61 ERA) and the Nationals look to bounce back from a sweep by the Rockies as they head to LA to take on RHP Derek Lowe (10-11, 3.47 ERA) and the Dodgers. Bacsik is coming off a decent outing against Houston. He lasted six innings and allowed three earned runs on seven hits (1 HR) with one walk and four strikeouts, but he still took the loss. Bacsik has not faced the Dodgers since May 30th, where he went six innings and allowed two earned runs (four total) on six hits - one homerun (Martin) - with one walk and one strikeout. He took the tough luck loss against Lowe in that one, who pitched seven innings of shutout ball.

Lowe is coming off of a win against the Phillies. He lasted seven innings and allowed three earned runs on six hits (1 HR) with no walks and three strikeouts. His only start of the season against the Nationals was the aforementioned May 30th game, where he took the win against Bacsik with a seven inning shutout performance.

Other games of note:
Braves @ Marlins (Cormier vs. Olsen)
Twins @ Indians (Silva vs. Byrd)
Angels @ Mariners (Lackey vs. Batista)

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